Shingles vaccination associated with reduction in probability of new dementia diagnosis

Vaccination To prevent shingles, also reduces the risk of developing dementia in later life, according to a recently research paper published in Nature. This conclusion is based on the analysis of data collected in connection with the introduction of a shingles immunization program launched in Wales in 2013. Economists with their special expertise in statistical analyzes have made an important contribution to the corresponding study.

We were able to apply our capacities in statistics to medical data, so that a bridge between these two fields was forged. “

Dr. Markus Eyting of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU), main author of the study

Together with co-leading author Dr. Min Xie, a post -doctoral researcher at the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, he showed that the hingles vaccination was associated with a reduction of 20 percent in the chance of a new diagnosis of dementia for a period of seven years. As noted in the article, “a natural experiment with regard to the effect of herpes zoster -vaccination on dementia”, this could cause various new possibilities for dementia prevention.

Electronic health files for the Wales delivery basis for statistical analysis

Dr. Min Xie identified the basis of what would represent a “natural experiment” created by the introduction of a Herpes Zoster Vaccination Program in Wales about two years ago. In the program, the suitability to receive the vaccine was determined by the exact date of birth of a person. Those born before 2 September 1933 were automatically not eligible for life, while they were born on or after 2 September 1933 the right to receive the vaccine. “In this context we can speak of a natural experiment because this setting gives us the opportunity to compare people who had just turned 80 with those who were not completely 80 years old,” Eyting explained. Because the individuals in the research cohort walked apart for only a few weeks, the researchers could assume that vaccination was the only factor that distinguished the groups. “We then looked at the risk of developing dementia in the next seven years,” Eyting continued.

One of the most important goals of the analysis was to identify a potentially causal effect instead of just a correlation. In other words, the researchers were looking for a causal relationship between the hingles vaccine and the risk of developing dementia, not just a random connection between the two factors. In the economy, threshold values ​​and target data – in this case the birthdays of the individuals – are often used to test on causal effects using regression of discontinuity. “This method is widely used in the economy, but is not yet sufficiently recognized as an aid for clinical examination,” Eyting added. According to him, regression offer discontinuity analyzes many opportunities to evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures.

Markus Eyping is a postgraduate researcher at Gutenberg School of Management and Economics (GSME) of Mainz University and at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research Safe in Frankfurt. His research focuses on experimental methods and survey and administrative data to study the interplay of beliefs and individual decision -making with applications with regard to health, discrimination and machine learning. Also involved in the study were Dr. Simon Heß of the Vienna University of Economics and Business, which supported data analysis with his expertise in econometric methods, as well as researchers from Stanford University. Eyting received the 2023 Young Economist Award from the European Economic Association (EEA) for a paper about the cause of discrimination.